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LTT: Jonathan Fuller
November 5, 2019 @ 11:05 am - 12:00 pm EST
Squaring the Extrapolator’s Circle
Jonathan Fuller, HPS
University of Pittsburgh
Abstract: To explain or predict the effect of some exposure in a human target population, health scientists and social scientists often extrapolate from a study done on some other human or non-human population. This procedure is used frequently in toxicology and epidemiology, where the exposure is a potential toxin or carcinogen, the outcome is a disease such as cancer and the study is an animal experiment. In these situations, extrapolators often use information about the exposure’s mechanism of action. In so doing, they must confront the extrapolator’s circle, the problem of how information about the mechanism could be used to extrapolate from the study without that information already containing the conclusion one is extrapolating. Steel (2008, 2010) explores the extrapolator’s circle and proposes a selective comparative process tracing as a solution, in which the extrapolator compares the study and the target population to see if the mechanism is undisrupted at certain stages in order to extrapolate the conclusion that the exposure is causally relevant. Steel’s solution fails to escape the extrapolator’s circle but points the way towards a successful strategy. I will illustrate using the example of aflatoxin B1, which causes liver cancer in rats and is an occasional food contaminant leading to exposure in people. The illustration may even shed light on whether you yourself should be worried about aflatoxin exposure!
Details
- Date:
- November 5, 2019
- Time:
-
11:05 am - 12:00 pm EST
- Event Category:
- Lunchtime Talks
Venue
- 1117 Cathedral of Learning
-
4200 Fifth Ave
Pittsburgh, PA 15260 United States