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LTT: Raphael Scholl
November 30, 2023 @ 12:00 pm - 1:30 pm EST
Title: Empirical tests of infectious disease models
Abstract:
Epidemiologists have been developing mathematical and computational models to predict the course of epidemics since at least the 1920s. In this talk I will consider how these models were tested empirically, especially in the decades leading up to the Covid-19 pandemic. Tests relied either on data from actual epidemics (such as influenza or ebola) or on synthetic data that were themselves generated by infectious disease models. The questions under investigation included whether the models were capable of predicting the rate at which new cases would occur, the time and case numbers at which the epidemic would peak, and the overall duration of the epidemic. I will focus on two methodological issues raised by such empirical tests of infectious disease models. First, which aspects of infectious disease dynamics were these models intended to represent? Second, what sort of confirmation did the models receive from tests of (mere) predictive accuracy? I will situate my results within an adequacy-for-purpose view of model evaluation.
This talk will also be available live streamed on You Tube at https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCrRp47ZMXD7NXO3a9Gyh2sg.
Details
- Date:
- November 30, 2023
- Time:
-
12:00 pm - 1:30 pm EST
- Event Categories:
- Lunchtime Talks, Lunchtime Talks 2023-24
Venue
- 1119 Cathedral of Learning
Organizer
- Center for Philosophy of Science
- Phone:
- 4126241050
- Email:
- pittcntr@pitt.edu
- View Organizer Website