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LTT: Nevin Climenhaga
December 9, 2022 @ 12:00 pm - 1:30 pm EST
Title: A Unified Theory of Probability
Abstract: I defend a partial entailment/degree-of-support interpretation of probability as a unified theory of both physical and epistemic probability. On this interpretation, probabilities are necessary and a priori relations between propositions, and measure the degree to which one proposition supports, or “partially entails”, another. I begin by providing a fuller explication of the structure of support relations than previous defenders of this interpretation. I distinguish between basic probabilities, which are determined directly by the content of the propositions they relate, and non-basic probabilities, which are determined directly by the values of other probabilities, and only indirectly by the content of the propositions they relate. I argue that basic probabilities are the probabilities of effects conditional on direct influences. After this, I explain what both physical and epistemic probabilities are, on this theory; note advantages this theory has over rival theories; and consider the question of what determines the values of basic probabilities, with a focus on the prospects of the principle of indifference.
This talk will also be available live streamed on You Tube at https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCrRp47ZMXD7NXO3a9Gyh2sg.
Details
- Date:
- December 9, 2022
- Time:
-
12:00 pm - 1:30 pm EST
- Event Category:
- Lunchtime Talks 2022-23
Venue
- 1117 Cathedral of Learning
-
4200 Fifth Ave
Pittsburgh, PA 15260 United States